Identifying predictors of international fisheries conflict

Marine capture fishery resources are declining, and demand for them is rising. These trends suspected to incite conflict, but their effects have not been quantitatively examined. We applied a multi-model ensemble approach global database of international conflicts between 1974 2016 test the supply-induced scarcity hypothesis (diminishing supplies increase fisheries conflict), demand-induced (rising increases three alternative political economic hypotheses. While no single indicator was able fully explain conflict over resources, we found positive relationship increased higher levels per capita GDP period 1975–1996. For 1997–2016, evidence supporting hypothesis, notion that an in supply linked occurrence. By identifying significant predictors our analysis provides useful information policy approaches anticipation management.